The Middle East conflict has caused one of the largest disruptions in global oil markets, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsing from about 20 mb/d to minimal levels. Limited alternative routes and rising storage have forced Gulf producers to cut output by at least 10 mb/d. Despite this shock, bearish sentiment has been partly contained by the IEA’s record release of 400 million barrels, the largest strategic drawdown ever and greater than the release following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.