Oil prices are trending higher into October 2025, buoyed by Moscow’s extended gasoline export ban through 2025 and restrictions on diesel exports, which have reinforced tightness in refined product markets. ICE Brent futures have moved above $70/bbl, reversing August’s average decline to $67.26/bbl.

Iraq will be the key price indicator of the upcoming weeks, with the potential restart of oil flows via Turkey adding to Europe’s regional supply.