Global supply remains constrained by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, despite efforts to redirect Gulf crude through alternative routes.

Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.6 mb/d in 2026 as high prices and supply-chain disruptions weigh on consumption. However, restricted Gulf exports and declining inventories are expected to keep the market tight, with demand projected to contract by 2.8 mb/d in 3Q26 before

returning to growth in 4Q26.