Global oil production fell by 1.6 mb/d month-on-month to 100.1 mb/d in August, as more than 10 mb/d of Gulf output remained shut in amid heightened security risks.

Supply is expected to decline by 5.7 mb/d to 100.7 mb/d in 2026, with the Gulf recovery deferred to 2027.

Global oil demand is forecast to decline by 2.5 mb/d in 2026, 940 kb/d lower than last August’s forecast, as stalled US-Iran negotiations delay the normalisation of oil flows into 2027.