Brent crude is up more than 75% this year, with refined product prices rising even faster. Diesel has faced additional pressure from the Russia-Ukraine war and uncertainty over U.S. measures to contain record fuel prices.

Physical oil markets are also tightening, as the Iran war has reduced the availability of very large crude carriers, pushing shipping rates to record highs. 

Despite renewed negotiations, market fundamentals are becoming more bullish. Supply pressures have intensified, with strong demand for prompt barrels and rising fuel prices as global refinery capacity remains constrained.